no-snow depression

I'm generally a fan of Christmas.  I do shy away a little bit, and frown upon the general over-indulgence and over-excitement of those around me, but I like Christmas.  This year however I haven't really warmed up to the idea.  I was gladly turned the holiday switch after thanksgiving buying a tree, putting up lights, and preparing for (hopefully) a great Christmas season.

Then days turned into weeks, Christmas was still weeks away, and I was getting pretty grinchy.  I had to go shopping once or twice and was annoyed by the crowds.  I've been out at night, several times, but I haven't wanted to see any Christmas lights.  Talk of going to Temple Square bored me, and the holidays seemed further away than ever.

Then today happened.  I went outside to my car and my spirits lifted.  SNOW!  It had snowed a light dusting durring the night, and everything seemed Chistmas-y in an instant.  Then as I worked through the morning I kept an eye outside and watched as the snow-flurrys kept coming and coming.  My jubilation at the beautiful weather made me realize, I need snow to make my Christmas complete.

Well if I ever live in Texas then I guess I might just skip Christmas, but for now, I am fully happy to welcome the real winter and the real Christmas.

craving

I'm really feeling the urge to post something, but I don't know what.  I often think of simple ideas to talk about while I'm working and stuff, but I don't remember them for long.  Life lately has been fairly mundane...

Oh wait!  I remember one of the more exciting things of the past week or two.  One night we went out to Cold Stone to get some ice cream.  All day at work I had been thinking about churros and I day-dreamed about churros mixed into ice cream.  So we went to Cold Stone and I quickly glanced at thier mix-in's list.... no churros or any other kind of cinnamon-covered pastry, sigh.  But then I saw this on a sign:

The Churro Carmel Crave.  It was wonderful, toasty churros, gooey carmel, and tasty french vanilla ice cream.  It was a dream come true.

I read a lot of sports articles.  I used to read most of them on ESPN.com, but then they lost Pat Forde. (And since he now supposedly works for Yahoo Sports, I looked him up and finally found The Dash reinvented.)  So I've moved over to Grantland for now, a spin-off from ESPN, writing about sports and pop cluture (ooh, ahh..).

This is a small excerpt from this weeks article that I just happen to love, and I love it a lot because it's so true, and because I love soccer. (I love soccer more than I love football in general, but not as much as I love college football specifically.)

Letter to a Coach

Coach Saban,

First off, let me say you have a fine, fine football team. The running game and the defense are just fantastic. I'll make this quick because you're busy. Tuscaloosa probably has a part of town where Latinos are concentrated. If not Tuscaloosa, then certainly Birmingham. In that part of town there will be a makeshift soccer field, or maybe even a real soccer field. On this field you will find children of all ages for whom kicking a ball is easy, second nature, and who haven't lived lives steeped in American collegiate football lore and therefore wouldn't be super-duper nervous if asked to kick a weird-shaped ball through uprights that to them would seem a gaping target. After you've chosen your boy, explain that he will receive a college education at one of the top 100 state universities in the nation if a few dozen times a year he kicks the weird ball through the uprights for you. There may be a moment of confusion when the boy thinks he has to actually hit one of the uprights with the ball, and then when he realizes he merely has to kick it anywhere between the uprights, both of you will laugh, and laughter knows no borders.

It's true. And speaking of soccer, my own Real Salt Lake lost to the stars of the LA Galaxy last week, which means the Galaxy will be hosting the Houston Dynamo (what's a Dynamo again?) for the MLS cup next Sunday (Nov. 20) I believe it will be broadcast on ESPN or ESPN2 for those interested.  

BCS comps

So I like computers, and I like college football, and college football uses a lot of computers to determine rankings.  It logically follows that I would be very interested in these computers, which is why I have bookmarks to the sites for all six BCS-used computer ranking systems.

In looking ahead to tonights BYU game against TCU, I though I might go see what the computers thought might happen, so....

One computer (Massey Ratings) actually has links for 'predictions' and 'matchups' where you can enter in particular match-ups and see who would win, as well as see predictions for the upcoming games.  It says that TCU has a 78% chance of winning the game, and by a predicted score of 34 to 24.  Maybe not the best chance, but it's the same percentage that said Notre Dame should have beat USC last week, just sayin'. (btw Massey has TCU and BYU ranked 53, and 54)

Moving to more promising news, two computers have BYU ranked higher than TCU.  The Colley Matrix BYU 41, TCU 42 and the Anderson-Hester computer, BYU 41, TCU 45.  Close margins, I know, but still.  (Colley Matrix is 'unbiased' meaning high scores don't matter, and A-H prides themselves on being the best rater of what a team has accomplished to date, not a great predictor)

Then there's the other three computers that have TCU above BYU, but again, by pretty close margins. The Billingsley Report TCU 41, BYU 50, Peter Wolfe TCU 43, BYU 47 and finally the Sagarin Ratings TCU 46, BYU 55.  And finally there is a page on the Massey Ratings site that shows the ranking of teams based on the averages of all the computers (both BCS official and others), there TCU is 33, and BYU is 51.... not boding so well for the cougars in this one.

But really, computers can only take you so far.  They fail to truly predict the outcome of games though they come close.  From a more human perspective, neither team has won any super difficult games, TCU's 'best win' came over #51 SD[iego]SU, while BYU's is over #76 SJ[ose]SU (basically the same team, minus Ronnie Hillman). Their strength of schedule and records are actually pretty similar.  Both have lost to two good teams (ok, so Utah's not so great, but the were better before losing Wynn) and both teams have beaten up on inferior opponents to look good (Idaho St., New Mexico, Portland St.)

If I were a betting man, I might put a few dollars on TCU.  But it is a really, really close call.  I still believe that BYU can win this one, they are an improving team, and this will be the big test for them (since their next three games they will actually be favored to win).

And now it's only 7.5 hrs until kick off.  :-D  I'm excited.

photography

Sometime I just like to post pictures.  For more details about our trip to Moab and Arches National Park, see our family blog post.

Delicate Arch

Alex is in the picture if you look carefully.

Fly

The Balancing Rock

The background is really amazing in this photo... as is my beautiful wife.

a shoe print we followed for almost 6 miles

... talk about blue.

Now that's what I call a taco!

So I recently started a job at Taco Time here in Herriman.  Yes, I am totally serious about that.  Engineering jobs are continuing to be elusive so in the midst of applying to every civil engineering job available I got a part time job at our local Taco Time.




Since starting there I can't really get this video out of my head... if only we made something like that at our store.

The QB debate

So it's been a little over a week since BYU nation began the great QB debate, Jake Heaps or Riley Nelson.  It seems that a large portion of fans think Riley is a much better option than Jake, chanting his name at the Utah State game to get him put in the game.  It seemed quite obvious to me that Riley would start this game against San Jose State.

Really, the only thing Riley adds to the game is his ability to run.  He is just as inconsistent (if not more so) of a passer as Jake Heaps is, throwing two interceptions (almost three) this game.  His running ability though does do a lot for the game, giving the ability to pick up 5+ yards running when his receivers get covered and getting him to move the pocket and give more time for plays to develop and get open receivers.

I think though that the biggest difference is not in these stats, unlike baseball, football is much more of an emotional game.  Think of it this way, Heaps, the sophomore going deep to the freshman Apo.  On the other hand you have Nelson, the junior going deep to the senior Jacobsen.  leadership is everything and the players respect their elders.

I think Riley will continue to start our games.  I think Jake will get time to play in the 3rd and 4th quarters in the games against Idaho State and New Mexico State, (and maybe Idaho). And he will continue to improve and in the future Heaps will be the great BYU quarterback that has been expected of him.