BCS comps

So I like computers, and I like college football, and college football uses a lot of computers to determine rankings.  It logically follows that I would be very interested in these computers, which is why I have bookmarks to the sites for all six BCS-used computer ranking systems.

In looking ahead to tonights BYU game against TCU, I though I might go see what the computers thought might happen, so....

One computer (Massey Ratings) actually has links for 'predictions' and 'matchups' where you can enter in particular match-ups and see who would win, as well as see predictions for the upcoming games.  It says that TCU has a 78% chance of winning the game, and by a predicted score of 34 to 24.  Maybe not the best chance, but it's the same percentage that said Notre Dame should have beat USC last week, just sayin'. (btw Massey has TCU and BYU ranked 53, and 54)

Moving to more promising news, two computers have BYU ranked higher than TCU.  The Colley Matrix BYU 41, TCU 42 and the Anderson-Hester computer, BYU 41, TCU 45.  Close margins, I know, but still.  (Colley Matrix is 'unbiased' meaning high scores don't matter, and A-H prides themselves on being the best rater of what a team has accomplished to date, not a great predictor)

Then there's the other three computers that have TCU above BYU, but again, by pretty close margins. The Billingsley Report TCU 41, BYU 50, Peter Wolfe TCU 43, BYU 47 and finally the Sagarin Ratings TCU 46, BYU 55.  And finally there is a page on the Massey Ratings site that shows the ranking of teams based on the averages of all the computers (both BCS official and others), there TCU is 33, and BYU is 51.... not boding so well for the cougars in this one.

But really, computers can only take you so far.  They fail to truly predict the outcome of games though they come close.  From a more human perspective, neither team has won any super difficult games, TCU's 'best win' came over #51 SD[iego]SU, while BYU's is over #76 SJ[ose]SU (basically the same team, minus Ronnie Hillman). Their strength of schedule and records are actually pretty similar.  Both have lost to two good teams (ok, so Utah's not so great, but the were better before losing Wynn) and both teams have beaten up on inferior opponents to look good (Idaho St., New Mexico, Portland St.)

If I were a betting man, I might put a few dollars on TCU.  But it is a really, really close call.  I still believe that BYU can win this one, they are an improving team, and this will be the big test for them (since their next three games they will actually be favored to win).

And now it's only 7.5 hrs until kick off.  :-D  I'm excited.

photography

Sometime I just like to post pictures.  For more details about our trip to Moab and Arches National Park, see our family blog post.

Delicate Arch

Alex is in the picture if you look carefully.

Fly

The Balancing Rock

The background is really amazing in this photo... as is my beautiful wife.

a shoe print we followed for almost 6 miles

... talk about blue.

Now that's what I call a taco!

So I recently started a job at Taco Time here in Herriman.  Yes, I am totally serious about that.  Engineering jobs are continuing to be elusive so in the midst of applying to every civil engineering job available I got a part time job at our local Taco Time.




Since starting there I can't really get this video out of my head... if only we made something like that at our store.

The QB debate

So it's been a little over a week since BYU nation began the great QB debate, Jake Heaps or Riley Nelson.  It seems that a large portion of fans think Riley is a much better option than Jake, chanting his name at the Utah State game to get him put in the game.  It seemed quite obvious to me that Riley would start this game against San Jose State.

Really, the only thing Riley adds to the game is his ability to run.  He is just as inconsistent (if not more so) of a passer as Jake Heaps is, throwing two interceptions (almost three) this game.  His running ability though does do a lot for the game, giving the ability to pick up 5+ yards running when his receivers get covered and getting him to move the pocket and give more time for plays to develop and get open receivers.

I think though that the biggest difference is not in these stats, unlike baseball, football is much more of an emotional game.  Think of it this way, Heaps, the sophomore going deep to the freshman Apo.  On the other hand you have Nelson, the junior going deep to the senior Jacobsen.  leadership is everything and the players respect their elders.

I think Riley will continue to start our games.  I think Jake will get time to play in the 3rd and 4th quarters in the games against Idaho State and New Mexico State, (and maybe Idaho). And he will continue to improve and in the future Heaps will be the great BYU quarterback that has been expected of him.

learning

I had a great weekend watching General Conference.  It was truly wonderful.  I may have more to say later, but for now I just wanted to make a small confession:  I don't usually listen to women speakers.  Not that I think they're completely boring or anything, but their talks are usually centered on young women or women in general and I don't feel it really applies to me at all.

However, this conference perhaps the single most meaningful talk to me what this one from Sister Elaine S. Dalton.  And since I loved it so much, here it is.



Isn't lds.org great?  one day after conference and you can embed videos.